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The Hanover Reports Third Quarter Net Income and Operating Income of $3.13 and $2.46 per Diluted Share, Respectively; Combined Ratio of 94.2%; Combined Ratio, Excluding Catastrophes, of 88.4%; Enters into a $100 Million Accelerated Share Repurchase Agreement

10/27/2020

WORCESTER, Mass., Oct. 27, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (NYSE: THG) today reported net income of $118.9 million, or $3.13 per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2020, compared to net income of $118.9 million, or $2.96 per diluted share, in the prior-year quarter. Operating income (1)  was $93.5 million, or $2.46 per diluted share, for the third quarter of 2020, compared to $93.0 million, or $2.31 per diluted share, in the prior-year quarter. The difference between net and operating income in the quarter was primarily due to an after-tax increase in the fair value of equity securities.

The company also announced it has entered into a $100 million accelerated share repurchase ("ASR") agreement with Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. Pursuant to the ASR agreement, the company expects to receive 80% of the total shares expected to be delivered as of the initial settlement date of October 29, 2020. The company expects to receive the remaining shares no later than early February 2021.

Third Quarter Highlights

  • Current accident year loss and loss adjustment expense ("LAE") ratio, excluding catastrophes(2), of 56.8%, which included favorable loss frequency in short-tail coverages, primarily personal auto, while maintaining prudent reserves in longer-tail liability lines
  • COVID-19 ultimate loss expectation remains unchanged with limited losses incurred to date
  • Catastrophe losses of $65.9 million, or 5.8 points of the combined ratio, including favorable development on prior-year catastrophes of $9.6 million
  • Net premiums written growth of 2.1%*, compared to a decline of 2.3% adjusted for non-recurring premium returns in the second quarter(3)
  • Rate increases of 5.7% in core commercial lines(4) and 4.7% in Personal Lines(5)
  • Net investment income of $67.6 million, slightly below prior-year, primarily due to lower new money yields
  • Book value per share of $84.32, up 4.0% from June 30, 2020 and up 11.0% from December 31, 2019, driven by net income and increases in the fair value of fixed income securities

"We're very pleased with our performance in the third quarter, delivering a strong operating ROE(6) of 13.8%, while making strategic gains that position us to continue to deliver sustainable growth and returns going forward," said John C. Roche, president and chief executive officer at The Hanover. "Despite industry headwinds and weather challenges, we are driving robust and consistent earnings, enabled by the effectiveness of our exposure and risk management actions taken over the last several years and our outstanding distribution capability. We generated record net premiums written of $1.3 billion and overall growth of 2.1%, rebuilding the momentum across our business since the onset of the pandemic. We continued to experience an increasingly hardening market in Commercial Lines, with core commercial rate increases of 5.7% and upper-single-digits in Specialty. We are successfully navigating the dynamic and competitive market in Personal Lines, achieving rate increases of 4.7%. The strength of our agency partnerships, specialized capabilities and innovative solutions will continue to enhance our growth trajectory moving forward. We are better positioned today than ever to deliver for our stakeholders and achieve our goal of establishing The Hanover as the premier property and casualty franchise in the independent agency channel."

Commenting on the company's third quarter results, Jeffrey M. Farber, executive vice president and chief financial officer, said, "We reported an all-in combined ratio of 94.2%, and 88.4%, excluding catastrophes(7). Our strong underlying loss performance was helped by the benefit of lower claims frequency, particularly in personal auto, while we maintained a prudent reserving approach to liability coverages. Our expense ratio(8), though slightly elevated in the quarter due to timing of certain expenses, improved by 20 basis points on a year-to-date basis, as we maintained our focus on deliberate expense planning and discipline."

"The $100 million ASR agreement announced today reinforces our commitment to effectively manage our capital. This agreement further underscores the strength in our company's earnings power and ability to consistently generate excess capital," Farber said. "We enter the final quarter of the year in an excellent financial position, supported by a strong balance sheet and robust business prospects. We are confident in our ability to continue driving top-and bottom-line growth across our business."


Three months ended


Nine months ended



September 30


September 30


  ($ in millions, except per share data)

2020


2019


2020


2019


Net premiums written

$1,268.5


$1,242.9


$3,486.4


$3,478.7


Net income

118.9


118.9


194.1


315.3


per diluted share

3.13


2.96


5.05


7.71


Operating income

93.5


93.0


243.0


251.4


per diluted share

2.46


2.31


6.33


6.15


Net investment income

67.6


68.8


194.9


208.6


Book value per share

$84.32


$78.01


$84.32


$78.01


Ending shares outstanding (in millions)

37.4


39.6


37.4


39.6


Combined ratio

94.2 %


94.4 %


95.2 %


95.4 %


Prior-year development ratio

(0.2)%


-


(0.3)%


-


Catastrophe ratio

5.8 %


3.1 %


7.5 %


4.0 %


Combined ratio, excluding catastrophes

88.4 %


91.3 %


87.7 %


91.4 %


Current accident year combined ratio, 
    excluding catastrophes(7)

88.6 %


91.3 %


88.0 %


91.4 %



(1)    See information about this and other non-GAAP measures and definitions used throughout this news release on the final pages of this document.

The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. may also be referred to as "The Hanover" or "the company" interchangeably throughout this news release.

*Unless otherwise stated, net premiums written growth and other growth comparisons are to the same period of the prior year

Third  Quarter Operating Highlights

Commercial Lines
Commercial Lines operating income before taxes was $62.3 million in the quarter, compared to $74.1 million in the third quarter of 2019. The Commercial Lines combined ratio was 96.9%, compared to 95.2% in the prior-year quarter. Catastrophe losses in the third quarter of 2020 were $33.6 million, or 5.1 points, compared to $22.0 million, or 3.3 points, in the prior-year quarter. Catastrophe losses were primarily driven by wildfires in California and Oregon, and Hurricane Isaias. Third quarter catastrophe losses also included favorable development of $8.9 million, or 1.3 points, primarily in the commercial multiple peril ("CMP") line.

Third quarter 2020 results included $3.9 million, or 0.6 points, of net favorable prior-year reserve development, driven primarily by workers' compensation and other commercial lines ("OCL"), partially offset by CMP and, to a lesser extent, commercial auto. This compared to net favorable prior-year reserve development of $5.6 million, or 0.8 points, in the third quarter of 2019.

Commercial Lines current accident year combined ratio, excluding catastrophes, decreased 0.3 points to 92.4% from 92.7% in the prior-year quarter. The current accident year loss and LAE ratio, excluding catastrophes, was consistent with the third quarter of 2019, with favorable loss frequency in commercial auto offset by a heavier than usual large loss experience in CMP.

Net premiums written were $760.5 million in the quarter, up 1.9% from the prior-year quarter, driven by rate increases, and improved retention of 87.1%. Core commercial average base rate increased 5.7% for the third quarter, while pricing increases averaged 4.9% and included the impact of slightly reduced exposure.

The following table summarizes premiums and the components of the combined ratio for Commercial Lines:


Three months ended


Nine months ended



September 30


September 30


  ($ in millions)

2020


2019


2020


2019


Net premiums written

$760.5


$746.4


$2,083.0


$2,068.5


Net premiums earned

665.1


663.5


1,999.6


1,974.7


Operating income before taxes

62.3


74.1


172.2


227.1


Loss and LAE ratio

62.4%


60.5%


62.9%


60.3%


Expense ratio

34.5%


34.7%


34.3%


34.7%


Combined ratio

96.9%


95.2%


97.2%


95.0%


Prior-year development ratio

(0.6)%


(0.8)%


(0.6)%


(0.9)%


Catastrophe ratio

5.1 %


3.3 %


6.1 %


2.8 %


Combined ratio, excluding catastrophes

91.8 %


91.9 %


91.1 %


92.2 %


Current accident year combined ratio,
    excluding catastrophes

92.4 %


92.7 %


91.7 %


93.1 %


Personal Lines
Personal Lines operating income before taxes was $64.2 million in the quarter, compared to $50.2 million in the third quarter of 2019. The Personal Lines combined ratio was 90.4%, compared to 93.3% in the prior-year quarter. Catastrophe losses in the third quarter of 2020 were $32.3 million, or 6.9 points, compared to $13.2 million, or 2.9 points, in the prior-year quarter. Catastrophe losses were driven primarily by Hurricane Isaias and, to a lesser extent, wind events in the Midwest.

Third quarter 2020 results included $1.0 million, or 0.2 points, of net unfavorable prior-year reserve development. This compared to $5.6 million, or 1.2 points, in the third quarter of 2019.

Personal Lines current accident year combined ratio, excluding catastrophe losses, improved 5.9 points to 83.3%, from 89.2% in the prior-year quarter. The current accident year loss and LAE ratio, excluding catastrophes, improved by 6.4 points to 55.4%, driven by favorable loss frequency in personal auto.

Net premiums written were $508.0 million in the quarter, up 2.3% from the prior-year quarter, driven by rate increases of 4.7%, while retention of 79.4% was negatively impacted by the lifting of moratoriums on cancellations and non-renewals for non-payment. The retention rate in the second quarter of 2020 was unusually high due to such moratoriums.

The following table summarizes premiums and components of the combined ratio for Personal Lines:


Three months ended


Nine months ended



September 30


September 30


  ($ in millions)

2020


2019


2020


2019


Net premiums written

$508.0


$496.5


$1,403.4


$1,410.2


Net premiums earned

470.3


460.6


1,373.8


1,355.5


Operating income before taxes

64.2


50.2


161.7


108.7


Loss and LAE ratio

62.5%


65.9%


64.6%


68.7%


Expense ratio

27.9%


27.4%


27.4%


27.4%


Combined ratio

90.4%


93.3%


92.0%


96.1%


Prior-year development ratio

0.2 %


1.2 %


(0.1)%


1.2 %


Catastrophe ratio

6.9 %


2.9 %


9.4 %


5.8 %


Combined ratio, excluding catastrophes

83.5 %


90.4 %


82.6 %


90.3 %


Current accident year combined ratio,
    excluding catastrophes

83.3 %


89.2 %


82.7 %


89.1 %


Investments
Net investment income was $67.6 million for the third quarter of 2020, compared to $68.8 million in the prior-year quarter. The decrease was primarily due to lower yields, partially offset by an increase in limited partnership income. The average pre-tax earned yield on fixed maturities was 3.26% and 3.55% for the quarters ended September 30, 2020 and 2019, respectively. Total pre-tax earned yield on the investment portfolio for the quarter ended September 30, 2020, was 3.37%, down from 3.57% in the prior-year quarter.

Net realized and unrealized investment gains were $37.7 million, pre-tax, in the third quarter of 2020, compared to $14.8 million in the third quarter of 2019. 

The company held approximately $9.0 billion in cash and invested assets on September 30, 2020. Fixed maturities and cash represented approximately 86% of the investment portfolio. Approximately 96% of the company's fixed maturity portfolio is rated investment grade. Net unrealized gains on the fixed maturity portfolio as of September 30, 2020, were $488.3 million before taxes, an increase in fair value of $36.8 million since June 30, 2020.

Shareholders' Equity and Capital Actions
On September 30, 2020, book value per share was $84.32, up 4.0% from June 30, 2020 and up 11.0% from December 31, 2019, driven primarily by net income and increases in the fair value of fixed income securities.

From the beginning of July through the date of this release, the company has repurchased approximately 650,000 shares of common stock in the open market for approximately $63.0 million, not including the announced ASR. After accounting for the shares repurchased in the open market to date and the ASR agreement, the company has approximately $122 million of remaining capacity under its existing $900 million share repurchase program.

Debt Issuance and Retirement
During the quarter, the company issued $300 million aggregate principal amount of 2.50% unsecured senior debentures due September 1, 2030. The company used $175 million of the net proceeds from the issuance of the notes to redeem its outstanding 6.35% subordinated debentures due 2053, at par. The remaining proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes in 2021, including organic growth. As a result of the redemption, the company recorded a one-time, non-operating charge of $4.8 million, after taxes, from the repayment of the subordinated debt.

Earnings Conference Call
The Hanover will host a conference call to discuss its third quarter results on Wednesday, October 28, 2020, at 10:00 a.m. E.T.  A PowerPoint slide presentation will accompany the prepared remarks and has been posted on The Hanover's website.  Interested investors and others can listen to the call and access the presentation through the company's website, located at hanover.com, in the "Investors" section. Investors may access the conference call by dialing 1-844-413-3975 in the U.S. and 1-412-317-5458 internationally. Webcast participants should go to the website 15 minutes early to register, download and install any necessary audio software.  A re-broadcast of the conference call will be available on this website approximately two hours after the call.

About The Hanover
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. is the holding company for several property and casualty insurance companies, which together constitute one of the largest insurance businesses in the United States. The company provides exceptional insurance solutions through a select group of independent agents and brokers. Together with its agent partners, The Hanover offers standard and specialized insurance protection for small and mid-sized businesses, as well as for homes, automobiles, and other personal items. For more information, please visit hanover.com.

Contact Information

Investors:

Media:


Oksana Lukasheva

Michael F. Buckley

Emily P. Trevallion

Email: olukasheva@hanover.com

Email:  mibuckley@hanover.com

Email:  etrevallion@hanover.com

1-508-525-6081

1-508-855-3099

1-508-855-3263




Definition of Reported Segments
Continuing operations include three operating segments: Commercial Lines, Personal Lines and Other. The Commercial Lines segment offers a suite of products targeted at the small to mid-size business markets, which include commercial multiple peril, commercial automobile, workers' compensation and other commercial coverages such as management and professional liability, marine, Hanover Programs, specialty industrial and commercial property, monoline general liability and surety. The Personal Lines segment markets automobile, homeowners and ancillary coverages to individuals and families. The "Other" segment includes Opus Investment Management, Inc., which provides investment management services to institutions, pension funds and other organizations, the operations of the holding company, as well as a block of run-off voluntary property and casualty pools business in which the company has not actively participated since 1995.


Financial Supplement
The Hanover's third quarter earnings news release and financial supplement are available in the "Investors" section of the company's website at hanover.com.

Condensed Financial Statements and Reconciliations

The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.










Condensed Consolidated Income Statements


Three months ended


Nine months ended




September 30


September 30


($ in millions)


2020


2019


2020


2019


Revenues










Premiums earned


$1,135.4


$1,124.1


$3,373.4


$3,330.2


Net investment income


67.6


68.8


194.9


208.6


Net realized and unrealized investment gains (losses):










 Net realized gains from sales and other


8.2


0.6


12.1


1.0


 Net change in fair value of equity securities


30.3


15.0


(44.4)


75.3


    Impairment losses on investments


(0.8)


(0.8)


(27.9)


(1.2)


Total net realized and unrealized investment gains (losses)


37.7


14.8


(60.2)


75.1


Fees and other income


9.1


7.0


22.2


18.9


Total revenues


1,249.8


1,214.7


3,530.3


3,632.8


Losses and expenses










Losses and loss adjustment expenses


709.7


705.3


2,149.9


2,122.6


Amortization of deferred acquisition costs


237.7


232.8


711.9


692.8


Interest expense


9.8


9.4


28.6


28.1


Loss from repayment of debt


6.1


-


6.2


-


Other operating expenses


137.9


136.9


395.9


400.6


Total losses and expenses


1,101.2


1,084.4


3,292.5


3,244.1


Income from continuing operations before income taxes


148.6


130.3


237.8


388.7


Income tax expense


29.1


23.5


41.7


68.7


Effect of new tax regulations on Chaucer gain on sale


-


(4.4)


-


1.2


Income from continuing operations


119.5


111.2


196.1


318.8


Discontinued operations (net of taxes):










Sale of Chaucer business


-


6.4


-


(2.6)


Income from Chaucer business


-


2.1


-


1.6


Loss from discontinued life businesses


(0.6)


(0.8)


(2.0)


(2.5)


Net income


$118.9


$118.9


$194.1


$315.3



 

The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.






Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets








September 30


December 31


($ in millions)


2020


2019


Assets






Total investments


$8,727.4


$7,996.0


Cash and cash equivalents


231.5


215.7


Premiums and accounts receivable, net


1,353.0


1,260.4


Reinsurance recoverable on paid and unpaid losses and unearned premiums


1,841.1


1,814.0


Other assets


1,131.3


1,101.6


Assets of discontinued businesses


109.5


102.8


Total assets


$13,393.8


$12,490.5


Liabilities






Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves


$5,945.7


$5,654.4


Unearned premiums


2,537.1


2,416.7


Debt


780.4


653.4


Other liabilities


856.7


732.9


Liabilities of discontinued businesses


118.9


116.9


Total liabilities


10,238.8


9,574.3


Total shareholders' equity


3,155.0


2,916.2


Total liabilities and shareholders' equity


$13,393.8


$12,490.5


 

The following is a reconciliation from operating income (loss) to net income(9):



































The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.




































Three months ended September 30



Nine months ended September 30





2020



2019



2020



2019



($ In millions, except per share data)


$

Amount



Per Share
(Diluted)


$

Amount



Per Share
(Diluted)



$

Amount



Per Share
(Diluted)



$

Amount



Per Share
(Diluted)



Operating income (loss)


































Commercial Lines


$

62.3







$

74.1







$

172.2







$

227.1







Personal Lines



64.2








50.2








161.7








108.7







Other



1.9








2.0








0.5








7.3







Total



128.4








126.3








334.4








343.1







Interest expense



(9.8)








(9.4)








(28.6)








(28.1)







Operating income before income
   taxes



118.6



$

3.12




116.9



$

2.91




305.8



$

7.96




315.0



$

7.71



Income tax expense on operating
   income



(25.1)




(0.66)




(23.9)




(0.60)




(62.8)




(1.63)




(63.6)




(1.56)



Operating income after income taxes



93.5




2.46




93.0




2.31




243.0




6.33




251.4




6.15



Non-operating items:


































Net realized gains from sales and
   other



8.2




0.21




0.6




0.02




12.1




0.31




1.0




0.02



Net change in fair value of equity
   securities



30.3




0.80




15.0




0.37




(44.4)




(1.15)




75.3




1.84



Impairment losses on investments



(0.8)




(0.02)




(0.8)




(0.02)




(27.9)




(0.73)




(1.2)




(0.03)



Loss from repayment of
   borrowings



(6.1)




(0.16)




-




-




(6.2)




(0.16)




-




-



Other non-operating items



(1.6)




(0.04)




(1.4)




(0.03)




(1.6)




(0.04)




(1.4)




(0.03)



Income tax benefit (expense) on
   non-operating items



(4.0)




(0.11)




4.8




0.12




21.1




0.55




(6.3)




(0.15)



Income from continuing
   operations, net of taxes



119.5




3.14




111.2




2.77




196.1




5.11




318.8




7.80



Discontinued operations (net of
   taxes):


































Sale of Chaucer business



-




-




6.4




0.16




-




-




(2.6)




(0.06)



Income from Chaucer business



-




-




2.1




0.05




-




-




1.6




0.03



Loss from discontinued life
   businesses



(0.6)




(0.01)




(0.8)




(0.02)




(2.0)




(0.06)




(2.5)




(0.06)



Net income


$

118.9



$

3.13



$

118.9



$

2.96



$

194.1



$

5.05



$

315.3



$

7.71



Dilutive weighted average shares
   outstanding







38.0








40.2








38.4








40.9





































Forward-Looking Statements and Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements in this document and comments made by management may be "forward-looking statements" as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, may be forward-looking statements. Words such as, but not limited to, "believes," "anticipates," "expects," "may," "projects," "projections," "plan," "likely," "potential," "targeted," "forecasts," "should," "could," "continue," "outlook," "guidance," "modeling," "moving forward"  and other similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements by their nature address matters that are, to different degrees, uncertain. The company cautions investors that any such forward-looking statements are estimates, beliefs, expectations and/or projections that involve significant judgement, and that historical results, trends and forward-looking statements are not guarantees and are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated.

These statements include, but are not limited to, the company's statements regarding:

  • The company's outlook and its ability to achieve components or the sum of the respective period guidance on its future results of operations including: the combined ratio, excluding or including both prior-year reserve development and/or catastrophe losses; catastrophe losses; net investment income; growth of net premiums written and/or net premiums earned in total or by line of business; expense ratio; operating return on equity; and/or the effective tax rate;
  • The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and subsequent global pandemic ("Pandemic") and related economic conditions on the company's operating and financial results, including, but not limited to, the impact on the company's investment portfolio, declining claims frequency as a result of reduced economic activity, severity from higher cost of repairs due to, among other things, supply chain disruptions, declines in premium as a result of, among other things, credits or returns to the company's customers, lower submissions, changes in renewals and policy endorsements, public health guidance, and the impact of government orders and restrictions in the states and jurisdictions in which the company operates;
  • Uses of capital for share repurchases, special or ordinary cash dividends, business investments or growth, or otherwise, and outstanding shares in future periods as a result of various share repurchase mechanisms, capital management framework, especially in the current environment, and overall comfort with capital levels;
  • Expectations with respect to the ASR agreement, including the amount and timing of the receipt of initial and final delivery of shares;
  • Variability of catastrophe losses due to risk concentrations, changes in weather patterns including climate change, terrorism, civil unrest, riots or other events, as well as the complexity in estimating losses from large catastrophe events due to delayed reporting of the existence, nature or extent of losses or where "demand surge," regulatory assessments, litigation, coverage and technical complexities or other factors may significantly impact the ultimate amount of such losses;
  • Current accident year losses and loss selections ("picks"), excluding catastrophes, and prior accident year loss reserve development patterns, particularly in complex "longer-tail" liability lines, as well as the inherent variability in short-tail property and non-catastrophe weather losses;
  • The confidence or concern that the current level of reserves is adequate and/or sufficient for future claim payments, whether due to losses that have been incurred but not reported, circumstances that delay the reporting of losses, business complexity, adverse judgments or developments with respect to case reserves, the difficulties and uncertainties inherent in projecting future losses from historical data, changes in replacement and medical costs, as well as complexities related to the Pandemic, including legislative, regulatory or judicial actions that expand the intended scope of coverages, or other factors;
  • Characterization of some business as being "more profitable" in light of inherent uncertainty of ultimate losses incurred, especially for "longer-tail" liability businesses;
  • Efforts to manage expenses, including the company's long-term expense savings targets, while allocating capital to business investment, which is at management's discretion;
  • Mix improvement, underwriting initiatives, coverage restrictions and pricing segmentation actions, among others, to grow businesses believed to be more profitable or reduce premiums attributable to products or lines of business believed to be less profitable; balance rate actions and retention; offset long-term and/or short-term loss trends due to increased frequency; increased "social inflation" from a more litigious environment and higher average cost of resolution, increased property replacement costs, and/or social movements;
  • The ability to generate growth in targeted segments through new agency appointments; rate increases (as a result of its market position, agency relationships or otherwise), retention improvements or new business; expansion into new geographies; new product introductions; or otherwise; and
  • Investment returns and the effect of macro-economic interest rate trends and overall security yields, including the macro-economic impact of the Pandemic and corresponding governmental initiatives taken in response, and geopolitical circumstances on new money yields and overall investment returns.

Additional Risks and Uncertainties
Investors are further cautioned and should consider the risks and uncertainties in the company's business that may affect such estimates and future performance that are discussed in the company's most recently filed reports on Form 10-K and Form 10-Q and other documents filed by The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") and that are also available at www.hanover.com under "Investors." These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to:

  • The severity, duration and long-term impact related to the Pandemic, including, but not limited to, decline in economic conditions, actual and possible government responses, legislative, regulatory and judicial actions, adverse impacts to the investment portfolio valuation and yield, changes in frequency and severity of claims in both Commercial and Personal Lines, customers' abilities to pay premiums or renew existing insurance policies, impacts to distributors (including agent partners), and the possibility of additional premium adjustments, including credits and returns, for the benefit of insureds;
  • The potential for operations to be disrupted or negatively impacted due to (i) the risk of the company's workforce, including third-party contractors, being unable to work due to illness, quarantine, limitations on travel or other government restrictions in connection with COVID-19 and the Pandemic; (ii) the company's reliance on the functioning of business continuity plans and technology while the majority of employees work remotely for an extended period of time; and (iii) the ongoing threat of cyberattacks and vulnerabilities;
  • Changes in regulatory, legislative, economic, market and political conditions, particularly in response to COVID-19 and the Pandemic (such as legislative or regulatory actions that would retroactively require insurers to cover business interruption or other types of claims irrespective of terms, exclusions or other conditions included in the contractual terms of the policies that would otherwise preclude coverage, mandatory returns and other rate-related actions, as well as presumption legislation in regards to workers' compensation);
  • Heightened investment market volatility, fluctuations in interest rates (which have a significant impact on the market value of the investment portfolio and thus book value), U.S. Federal Reserve actions, inflationary pressures, default rates, prolonged global market conditions and other factors that affect investment returns from the investment portfolio;
  • Adverse claims experience, including those driven by large or increased frequency of catastrophe events (including those related to terrorism, riots and civil unrest), and severe weather;
  • The uncertainty in estimating weather-related losses or the long-term impacts of the Pandemic, and the limitations and assumptions used to model other property and casualty losses (particularly with respect to products with longer-tail liability lines, such as casualty and bodily injury claims, or involving emerging issues related to losses incurred as the result of new lines of business, such as cyber or financial institutions coverage, or reinsurance contracts and reinsurance recoverables), leading to potential adverse development of loss and loss adjustment expense reserves;
  • Litigation and the possibility of adverse judicial decisions, including those which expand policy coverage beyond its intended scope or award "bad faith" or other non-contractual damages, and the impact of "social inflation" affecting judicial awards and settlements;
  • The ability to increase or maintain insurance rates in line with anticipated loss costs and/or governmental action, including mandates by state departments of insurance to either raise or lower rates or provide credits or return premium to insureds;
  • Investment impairments, which may be affected by, among other things, the company's ability and willingness to hold investment assets until they recover in value, as well as credit and interest rate risk and general financial and economic conditions;
  • Disruption of the independent agency channel, including the impact of competition and consolidation in the industry and among agents and brokers, and the degree to which agents and brokers remain operational during the Pandemic;
  • Competition, particularly from competitors who have resource and capability advantages;
  • The global macroeconomic environment, including actions taken in response to the Pandemic, inflation, global trade wars, energy market disruptions, equity price risk, and interest rate fluctuations, which, among other things, could result in reductions in market values of fixed maturity and other investments;
  • Adverse state and federal regulation, legislative and/or regulatory actions (including recent significant revisions to Michigan's automobile personal injury protection system and related litigation, and various regulations, orders and proposed legislation related to business interruption and workers' compensation coverages, premium grace periods and returns, and rate actions);
  • Financial ratings actions, in particular, downgrades to the company's ratings;
  • Operational and technology risks and evolving technological and product innovation, including risks created by remote work environments, and the risk of cyber-security attacks or breaches on the company's systems or resulting in claim payments (including from products not intended to provide cyber coverage);
  • Uncertainties in estimating indemnification liabilities recorded in conjunction with obligations undertaken in connection with the sale of various businesses and discontinued operations; and
  • The ability to collect from reinsurers, reinsurance pricing, reinsurance terms and conditions, and the performance of the run-off voluntary property and casualty pools business (including those in the Other segment or in Discontinued operations).

Investors should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date they are made, and should understand the risks and uncertainties inherent in or particular to the company's business. The company does not undertake the responsibility to update or revise such forward-looking statements.

Non-GAAP Financial Measures
As discussed on page 38 of the company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2019, the company uses non-GAAP financial measures as important measures of its operating performance, including operating income, operating income before interest expense and taxes, operating income per share, and components of the combined ratio, both excluding and/or including, catastrophe losses, prior-year reserve development and the expense ratio. Management believes these non-GAAP financial measures are important indications of the company's operating performance. The definition of other non-GAAP financial measures and terms can be found in the 2019 Annual Report on pages 67-70.

Operating income and operating income per share are non-GAAP measures. They are defined as net income excluding the after-tax impact of net realized and unrealized investment gains (losses),  gains and/or losses on the repayment of debt, other non-operating items, and results from discontinued operations. Net realized and unrealized investment gains (losses), which include changes in the fair value of equity securities still held, are excluded for purposes of presenting operating income as they are, to a certain extent, determined by interest rates, financial markets and the timing of sales. Operating income also excludes net gains and losses from disposals of businesses, gains and losses related to the repayment of debt, costs to acquire businesses, restructuring costs, the cumulative effect of accounting changes and certain other items. Operating income is the sum of the segment income from: Commercial Lines, Personal Lines, and Other, after interest expense and taxes. In reference to one of the company's three segments, "operating income" is the segment income before both interest expense and taxes. The company also uses "operating income per share" (which is after both interest expense and taxes). It is calculated by dividing operating income by the weighted average number of diluted shares of common stock. The company believes that metrics of operating income and operating income in relation to its three segments provide investors with a valuable measure of the performance of the company's continuing businesses because they highlight the portion of net income attributable to the core operations of the business. Income from continuing operations is the most directly comparable GAAP measure for operating income (and operating income before taxes) and measures of operating income that exclude the effects of catastrophe losses and/or reserve development should not be misconstrued as substitutes for income from continuing operations or net income determined in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation of operating income (loss) to income from continuing operations and net income for the relevant periods is included on page 10 of this news release and in the Financial Supplement.

The company may also provide measures of operating income and combined ratios that exclude the impact of catastrophe losses (which in all respects include prior accident year catastrophe loss development). A catastrophe is a severe loss, resulting from natural or manmade events, including, but is not limited to, hurricanes, tornadoes, windstorms, earthquakes, hail, severe winter weather, fire, explosions, civil unrest and terrorism. Due to the unique characteristics of each catastrophe loss, there is an inherent inability to reasonably estimate the timing or loss amount in advance. The company believes a separate discussion excluding the effects of catastrophe losses is meaningful to understand the underlying trends and variability of earnings, loss and combined ratio results, among others.

Prior accident year reserve development, which can either be favorable or unfavorable, represents changes in the company's estimate of costs related to claims from prior years. Calendar year loss and loss adjustment expense ("LAE") ratios determined in accordance with GAAP, excluding prior accident year reserve development, are sometimes referred to as "accident year loss ratios." The company believes a discussion of loss and combined ratios, excluding prior accident year reserve development, is helpful since it provides insight into both estimates of current accident year results and the accuracy of prior-year estimates.

The loss and combined ratios in accordance with GAAP are the most directly comparable GAAP measures for the loss and combined ratios calculated excluding the effects of catastrophe losses and/or reserve development. The presentation of loss and combined ratios calculated excluding the effects of catastrophe losses and/or reserve development should not be misconstrued as substitutes for the loss and/or combined ratios determined in accordance with GAAP.

Operating return on equity ("ROE") is a non-GAAP measure. See end note (6) for a detailed explanation of how this measure is calculated. Operating ROE is based on non-GAAP operating income. In addition, the portion of shareholder equity attributed to unrealized appreciation (depreciation) on fixed maturity investments, net of tax, is excluded. The company believes this measure is helpful in that it provides insight to the capital used by, and results of, the continuing business exclusive of interest, taxes, and other non-operating items. These measures should not be misconstrued as substitutes for GAAP ROE, which is based on net income and shareholders' equity of the entire company and without adjustments.

Endnotes

(1)   Operating income and operating income per diluted share are non-GAAP measures. Operating income (loss) before taxes, as referenced in the results of the business segments, is defined as, with respect to such segment, operating income (loss) before taxes and interest expense. These measures are used throughout this document. The reconciliation of operating income and operating income per diluted share to the closest GAAP measures, income from continuing operations and income from continuing operations per diluted share, respectively, is provided on the preceding pages of this news release. See the disclosure on the use of this and other non-GAAP measures under the heading "Forward-Looking Statements and Non-GAAP Financial Measures."

(2)   Current accident year loss and LAE ratio, excluding catastrophe losses, is a non-GAAP measure, which is equal to the loss and LAE ratio ("loss ratio"), excluding prior-year reserve development and catastrophe losses. The loss ratio (which includes losses, LAE, catastrophe losses and prior-year loss reserve development) is the most directly comparable GAAP measure. A reconciliation of the GAAP loss ratio to the current accident year loss ratio, excluding catastrophe losses, is shown on the following page.




Three months ended





September 30, 2020





Commercial
Lines


Personal
Lines


Total



Total loss and LAE ratio


62.4 %


62.5 %


62.4 %



Less:









Prior-year reserve development ratio


(0.6)%


0.2 %


(0.2)%



Catastrophe ratio


5.1 %


6.9 %


5.8 %



Current accident year loss and LAE ratio, excluding catastrophes


57.9 %


55.4 %


56.8 %














September 30, 2019



Total loss and LAE ratio


60.5 %


65.9 %


62.7 %



Less:









Prior-year reserve development ratio


(0.8)%


1.2 %


-



Catastrophe ratio


3.3 %


2.9 %


3.1 %



Current accident year loss and LAE ratio, excluding catastrophes


58.0 %


61.8 %


59.6 %























Nine months ended





September 30, 2020





Commercial
Lines


Personal
Lines


Total



Total loss and LAE ratio


62.9 %


64.6 %


63.7 %



Less:









Prior-year reserve development ratio


(0.6)%


(0.1)%


(0.3)%



Catastrophe ratio


6.1 %


9.4 %


7.5 %



Current accident year loss and LAE ratio, excluding catastrophes


57.4 %


55.3 %


56.5 %














September 30, 2019



Total loss and LAE ratio


60.3 %


68.7 %


63.7 %



Less:









Prior-year reserve development ratio


(0.9)%


1.2 %


-



Catastrophe ratio


2.8 %


5.8 %


4.0 %



Current accident year loss and LAE ratio, excluding catastrophes


58.4 %


61.7 %


59.7 %











(3)   Total net premiums written, excluding the impact of the premium returned in April and May, is a non-GAAP measure. Total net premiums written is the closest GAAP measure and is reconciled in the table below:

















Three months ended June 30,









2020



2019



Growth


















Total net premiums written


$1,081.0




$1,137.8



(5.0)%




Plus: premium return


30.2



-



-




Total net premiums written,














excluding premium return


$1,111.2




$1,137.8



(2.3)%

















(4)   Core Commercial business provides commercial property and casualty coverages to small and mid-sized businesses in the U.S., generally with annual premiums per policy up to $250,000, primarily through the commercial multiple peril, commercial auto and workers' compensation lines of business, as reported on pages 8 and 9 of the Third Quarter 2020 Financial Supplement. Price increases in Commercial Lines represent the average change in premium on renewed policies caused by the estimated net effect of base rate changes, discretionary pricing, inflation or changes in policy level exposure or insured risks.



Three months ended


Three months ended




September 30, 2020


September 30, 2019


($ in millions)


Core
Commercial


Other
Commercial


Total

Commercial


Core
Commercial


Other
Commercial


Total

Commercial


Net premiums written


$441.2


$319.3


$760.5


$440.3


$306.1


$746.4


Net premiums earned


$385.9


$279.2


$665.1


$385.4


$278.1


$663.5


















Nine months ended


Nine months ended




September 30, 2020


September 30, 2019


($ in millions)


Core
Commercial


Other
Commercial


Total

Commercial


Core
Commercial


Other
Commercial


Total

Commercial


Net premiums written


$1,210.1


$872.9


$2,083.0


$1,210.3


$858.2


$2,068.5


Net premiums earned


$1,163.0


$836.6


$1,999.6


$1,153.4


$821.3


$1,974.7


(5)   Price increases in Personal Lines is the estimated cumulative premium effect of approved rate actions applied to policies available for renewal, regardless of whether or not policies are actually renewed. Accordingly, pricing changes do not represent actual increases or decreases realized by the company.

(6)   Operating return on average equity ("operating ROE") is a non-GAAP measure. Operating ROE is calculated by dividing annualized operating income after tax for the applicable period (see under the heading in this news release "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" and end note (1)), by average shareholders' equity, excluding unrealized appreciation (depreciation) on fixed maturity investments, net of tax, for the period presented. Total shareholders' equity, excluding net unrealized appreciation (depreciation) on fixed maturity investments, net of tax, is also a non-GAAP measure.  Total shareholders' equity is the most directly comparable GAAP measure, and is reconciled below. For the calculation of operating ROE, the average of beginning and ending shareholders' equity, excluding net unrealized appreciation (depreciation) on fixed maturity investments, net of tax, is used for the period as shown in the table below and reconciled on the following page:










Period ended



($ in millions)


June 30,


September 30,





2020


2020



Total shareholders' equity (GAAP)


$3,071.7


$3,155.0



Less: net unrealized appreciation (depreciation) on fixed

     maturity investments, net of tax


384.5


412.3



Total shareholders' equity, excluding net unrealized appreciation

     (depreciation) on fixed maturity investments, net of tax


$2,687.2


$2,742.7










Average shareholders' equity (GAAP)




$3,113.4



Average shareholders' equity, excluding net unrealized appreciation

     (depreciation) on fixed maturity investments, net of tax




$2,715.0









 









($ in millions)


Three months ended






September 30




Net Income ROE


2020




Net income (GAAP)


$

118.9




Annualized net income*


$

475.6




Average shareholders' equity (GAAP)


$

3,113.4




Return on equity



15.3

%



Operating Income ROE (non-GAAP)







Operating income after taxes


$

93.5




Annualized operating income, net of tax*


$

374.0




Average shareholders' equity, excluding net unrealized

     appreciation (depreciation) on fixed maturity

     investments, net of tax


$

2,715.0




Operating return on equity



13.8

%









*Net income and operating income after taxes are calculated by taking three months ended September 30, 2020 net income and operating income after taxes, respectively, and multiplying by four.

(7)   Combined ratio, excluding catastrophes, and current accident year combined ratio, excluding catastrophes, are non-GAAP measures. These measures are used throughout this document. The combined ratio (which includes catastrophe losses and prior-year loss reserve development) is the most directly comparable GAAP measure. A reconciliation of the GAAP combined ratio to the combined ratio, excluding catastrophes, and to the current accident year combined ratio, excluding catastrophes, is shown on the following page.  




Three months ended




Three months ended






September 30, 2020




September 30, 2019






Commercial
Lines



Personal
Lines



Total




Commercial
Lines



Personal
Lines



Total
































Total combined ratio (GAAP)



96.9

%



90.4

%



94.2

%




95.2

%



93.3

%



94.4

%



Less: catastrophe ratio



5.1

%



6.9

%



5.8

%




3.3

%



2.9

%



3.1

%



Combined ratio, excluding catastrophe

    losses (non-GAAP)



91.8

%



83.5

%



88.4

%




91.9

%



90.4

%



91.3

%



Less: Prior-year reserve development

    ratio



(0.6)

%



0.2

%



(0.2)

%




(0.8)

%



1.2

%



-




Current accident year combined ratio,

    excluding catastrophe losses (non-

    GAAP)



92.4

%



83.3

%



88.6

%




92.7

%



89.2

%



91.3

%





























































Nine months ended




Nine months ended






September 30, 2020




September 30, 2019






Commercial
Lines



Personal
Lines



Total




Commercial
Lines



Personal
Lines



Total
































Total combined ratio (GAAP)



97.2

%



92.0

%



95.2

%




95.0

%



96.1

%



95.4

%



Less: catastrophe ratio



6.1

%



9.4

%



7.5

%




2.8

%



5.8

%



4.0

%



Combined ratio, excluding catastrophe

    losses (non-GAAP)



91.1

%



82.6

%



87.7

%




92.2

%



90.3

%



91.4

%



Less: Prior-year reserve development

    ratio



(0.6)

%



(0.1)

%



(0.3)

%




(0.9)

%



1.2

%



-




Current accident year combined ratio,

    excluding catastrophe losses (non-

    GAAP)



91.7

%



82.7

%



88.0

%




93.1

%



89.1

%



91.4

%






























(8)   Here, and later in this document, the expense ratio is reduced by installment and other fee revenues for purposes of the ratio calculation.

(9)   The separate financial information of each operating segment is presented consistent with the way results are regularly evaluated by the chief operating decision maker in deciding how to allocate resources and in assessing performance. Management evaluates the results of the aforementioned operating segments without consideration of interest expense on debt and on a pre-tax basis.

 

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SOURCE The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.

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